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Friday Morning Thoughts

The Market Is Holding Up — But the Risk Is Building

As I sit here Thursday afternoon watching the market close, there are a few things that are really jumping out at me.

First, I’m watching the bond market closely. Treasury yields are not behaving the way I would like to see, and to me, that’s a warning sign worth paying attention to.

Second, oil and the geopolitical situation remain major risks. WTI and Brent continue to move higher, and conditions around the Strait are not showing enough improvement to take that risk off the table. Higher oil can feed inflation expectations, put upward pressure on yields, and ultimately create another headwind for stocks.

Third, we’re reaching the tail end of Q2 earnings season. Strong corporate earnings have been one of the major catalysts helping drive this market higher. With most of those earnings now behind us, the question becomes: What is the next catalyst that pushes stocks higher?

That doesn't mean the rally is over. But with the S&P 500 still relatively close to its highs, it may not take much bad news to shake some confidence out of this market.

Keep an Eye on the VIX

The VIX has spent the past couple of weeks in the 14–16 range, reflecting relatively low expected volatility.

But that can change quickly.

If we see the VIX move from around 16 toward 19 or 20, I would expect a much more volatile trading environment. Remember, a rising VIX doesn't mean stocks simply go straight down. It generally means larger and faster price swings — up, down, and sometimes both in the same session.

That's where traders need to be especially careful about chasing moves.

How I'm Managing My Trades

I'm continuing to manage my options positions based on what the market gives me.

• When a stock moves higher and approaches one of my covered-call strikes, I may look to roll the call higher — and sometimes farther out in time.
• If the stock falls and my call moves comfortably out of the money, I may look at rolling the call down to capture additional premium. Depending on pricing, I may even keep the same expiration.
• The same principle applies when I'm managing puts.

The important point is that I'm managing the options and the underlying stock as separate pieces of the overall strategy. The stock is the asset, and the options give me another tool to potentially generate income and manage the position around it.

And remember this simple rule of thumb:

• Low VIX = generally lower option premiums.
• Higher VIX = generally richer option premiums.

There are many other factors involved in option pricing, but volatility is an important piece of the puzzle.

What I'm Watching Next

We're heading into an important stretch of the calendar with Federal Reserve commentary, Jackson Hole, geopolitical developments, oil prices, bond yields, and late-summer seasonality all capable of moving markets.

August and September have also historically been challenging months, so I'm not interested in trying to predict exactly where the market goes next.

I'm watching. I'm managing risk. And I'm letting the opportunities come to me.

SmartMoneyIQ content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment or financial advice.

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The VIX: Understanding the Market’s Fear Gauge

The VIX, often called the “Fear Index,” measures how much volatility investors expect in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days.

The VIX is calculated using prices of S&P 500 (SPX) options. When investors become nervous and demand more protection, option premiums generally rise—and the VIX tends to rise with them.

How to Read the VIX

VIX Level	What It May Tell Us
15–20	Normal volatility
20–30	Elevated uncertainty
30–40	High fear and larger market swings
40+	Extreme volatility or market stress

How the VIX Affects Options

Here's the simple relationship:

• Higher VIX → Generally Higher Option Premiums
• Lower VIX → Generally Lower Option Premiums

When volatility rises, the market expects stocks to make larger moves. That uncertainty increases the value of options, so both calls and puts can become more expensive, all else being equal.

Why Does This Matter?

When the VIX Is Higher:
Option premiums are generally richer. This can benefit option sellers using strategies such as:

• Covered Calls
• Cash-Secured Puts
• Credit Spreads
• Iron Condors

You may collect more premium, but remember: Higher premium usually comes with higher risk. The market is paying you more because it expects larger price movements.

When the VIX Is Lower:
Option premiums are generally cheaper. This can mean:

• Less premium for option sellers
• Lower prices for option buyers
• Smaller expected market moves
• A generally calmer market environment

What Is IV Crush?

Suppose you buy an option when implied volatility is very high. Then volatility suddenly falls. The value of your option can decline even if the stock barely moves. This is commonly called IV Crush.

That's why understanding volatility is important when trading options. You aren't only trading the direction of the stock—you are also paying attention to time and volatility.

VIX vs. Individual Stocks

There's one important distinction. The VIX measures expected volatility in the S&P 500, not an individual stock. Stocks such as NVDA, TSLA, or PLTR have their own implied volatility (IV). The VIX can help you understand the overall market environment, while a stock's IV tells you more about the volatility being priced into that particular stock's options.

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Income Generating Options Trading Setups

Let's review the possible trade setups for this week.

Key Reference Levels on TQQQ

• Higher Resistance levels: 70.75, 71.55 and 72.18
• Lower Support levels: 69.73, 69.09 and 68.28
• 21 Day Moving Average: at 72.01; trading below this level is bearish.

Trading Strategy

• Waiting for a pullback down to (~68-ish) and trade Buy-Writes to average into TQQQ. Collecting Premium and getting called away is the strategy.
• Or selling CSEP below 68 for 1 to 2 weeks out.

With some cash on hand, I am waiting for a sell-off. If we don’t get down to some of the lower levels with the Stochastics bottoming out, I will manage current positions with rolls into following weeks’ expirations as price(s) allow.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

- Sanjog

Good Afternoon,

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Market Summary

Last week was a mixed but ultimately positive week for stocks, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.4%, the Nasdaq up 0.1%, and the Dow falling 0.6%. The Russell 2000 actually outperformed, rising 1.1%, as the rally broadened beyond mega-cap technology. The S&P 500 also managed to hit another record high during the week.

The biggest driver was inflation. July CPI came in relatively tame at 3.4% year-over-year, while core inflation eased to 2.5%. Thursday's PPI report also showed wholesale inflation cooling. Together, those reports eased fears that the Federal Reserve would need to raise rates again in September, helping Treasury yields decline and supporting growth and technology stocks.

AI remained a major source of strength, with semiconductor and technology names helping push the market to new highs. However, Friday brought some caution after retail sales unexpectedly declined, raising questions about whether the consumer and broader economy may be starting to slow. Oil also remained volatile as uncertainty surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continued to influence energy prices and inflation expectations.

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My Thoughts

Cautiously optimistic this week, I will still want to raise cash on rallies and enter the market on dips. We are getting close to the August monthly OPEX (Options expiration) and NVDA earnings on Aug 26th. We also have another Fed meeting on Sep 19th.

In the last three midterm election cycles, we had a 10% S&P 500 sell-off in mid-August, around options expiration, or around September 16th or 19th, in two other midterm cycle years. I'm keeping an eye on these time frames this year, just in case the market follows the past and we get a sell-off from the highs.

These are the levels I'm watching:

• S&P 500: Made a new high last week
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,274 (record close)
• TQQQ: $87.02 (record close)

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Stocks I am Watching This Week

• SPX and QQQ: Major benchmark indices
• TQQQ: Sold 76 and 78 calls for Aug 21st and 28th, and an Aug 21st 75/73 put credit spread
• IREN: Small position and just holding (looking for exit)
• CIFR: Small position and just holding (looking for exit)
• INTC: Sold 108 calls for Aug 21st
• AMDL: Sold 63 calls for Aug 21st
• SKHY: Sold 165 calls for Aug 21st

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Income Generating Options Trading Setups

Key Reference Levels on TQQQ (130 min chart)

• Higher levels: 77.08, 77.94, and 78.33
• Lower levels: 75.89, 75.06, and 74.21
• 21 Day Moving Average: at 74.40; trading above this level is a bullish trend.
• Stochastics: Around the 80% line from below; thus, TQQQ is approaching overbought levels.
• VIX: At 14.25. This is a low level where any bad news can increase the VIX, which will also raise option premiums (calls and puts).

Gamma Levels & Trading Strategy for TQQQ (Beta)

With cash on hand, I am waiting for a sell-off. If we don't get down to some of the lower levels with the Stochastics heading lower towards 20%, I will manage current positions with rolls into following weeks' expirations as price(s) allow.

• Bullish Entry Thesis: Buy dips to GEX 1 ($75) or Lower Band ($70.74) with stops below HVL ($71.50) for swing trades targeting Call Resistance ($80) or Risk Trigger ($82.84).
• Bearish Trigger: Breakdown below Put Support ($71) with volume would negate Swing Model structure and signal regime shift.
• Position Sizing: Moderate due to seasonality headwind; increase allocation only on confirmed breakout above $80 with volume.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

- Sanjog

Good evening,

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NVDA: “What should I do with my NVDA”?

This was one of the questions that was asked by one of our community members: What should I do with my NVIDIA?

The core NVIDIA story remains intact: AI infrastructure spending is still growing rapidly, and NVIDIA remains at the center of that buildout. In its most recent quarter, NVIDIA generated a record $81.6 billion in revenue (up 85% year-over-year), while Data Center revenue surged 92% to $75.2 billion. Management guided the following quarter to approximately $91 billion in revenue, showing that demand continues to expand even from an enormous base.

• AI spending isn't slowing yet: Major technology companies continue committing enormous amounts of capital to data centers and AI infrastructure. Reuters recently estimated Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle could collectively spend roughly $750 billion on data centers in 2026.
• NVIDIA owns more than just the GPU: CUDA software, networking, systems and its broader AI ecosystem make switching away from NVIDIA harder than simply buying a competing chip.
• Blackwell to Rubin provides another upgrade cycle: NVIDIA is already transitioning customers toward its next-generation Rubin architecture, keeping the product roadmap moving rather than relying on one generation of chips.
• The financials remain extremely strong: NVIDIA maintained roughly 75% non-GAAP gross margins last quarter while producing enormous earnings and cash flow.
• The next catalyst is close: NVIDIA reports its next quarterly results on August 26, which should give us an important update on AI demand, margins, Blackwell/Rubin, and forward guidance.

What Would Make Me Reconsider?

There are real risks. Valuation expectations are high, Chinese semiconductor competition is increasing, export restrictions remain a wildcard, and investors are beginning to question whether the enormous amounts being spent on AI infrastructure will ultimately generate sufficient returns.

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What is the CPI (Consumer Price Index)?

Why Should You Care About CPI?

CPI affects everything—your groceries, gas, rent, stock market moves, and even the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates.

• If CPI is high: Inflation is rising → Everything gets more expensive → The Fed might raise interest rates.
• If CPI is low: Inflation is cooling → Prices are stable or falling → The Fed might lower interest rates.

Example: If CPI jumps 7% in a year, that means your $100 grocery bill last year now costs $107, and your paycheck might not keep up.

How is CPI Measured?

CPI looks at the price changes of a “basket” of goods and services that average Americans buy, including:

• Food & Groceries: Milk, eggs, meat, coffee
• Gas & Energy Costs: Gasoline, electricity, heating
• Housing Costs: Rent, mortgage expenses
• Healthcare: Doctor visits, prescription drugs
• Transportation: Car prices, public transit costs
• Entertainment & Services: Movie tickets, travel, personal care

Headline CPI vs. “Core CPI” – What’s the Difference?

• Headline CPI: Measures all price changes, including food and energy.
• Core CPI: Excludes food and energy, since these prices tend to be more volatile.

Why it matters: The Fed often watches Core CPI because food and gas prices can have temporary spikes, while core inflation reflects longer-term underlying trends.

CPI: Today’s Release Notes — Good News for the Market

Today's July CPI report was relatively market-friendly. Headline inflation rose just 0.1% month-over-month, in line with expectations, while the annual inflation rate eased to 3.4% from 3.5% in June. Core CPI increased 0.2% for the month and 2.5% year-over-year.

The biggest contributor to July's increase was shelter, while lower gasoline prices helped keep headline inflation contained. Today's report didn't provide evidence of a new inflation surge, reducing pressure on the Fed to raise rates at its September meeting.

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Mid-Week Thoughts

The markets have had a nice rebound off the lows, and memory and semi stocks have caught a bid as of late. Some bigger names like the Mag 7 have done quite well and are still in the spotlight. However, we are entering the seasonally low timeframe from August into September or sometimes into October. I'd be cautious of rallies, selling into rallies, and waiting for lower prices to enter quality stocks.

In a midterm year, anything is possible going into elections. We made some new highs on SPX; QQQ has not completely followed suit yet. Again, the geopolitical scene remains the wildcard for inflation.

Warning for TQQQ: This seasonality could bring anywhere from a 15% to 30% drawdown, so either have some cash available or keep protective stops in place.

For long-term investors, implementing a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) methodology is a prudent way to build wealth over the long haul without worrying about short-term market whipsaws.

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Income Generating Options Trading Setups

Key Reference Levels on TQQQ

• Higher Resistance levels: 74.89, 75.89 and 77.06
• Lower Support levels: 74.21, 73.35 and 72.19
• 21 Day Moving Average: at 72.69; trading above this level is bullish.

Trading Strategy

• Waiting for a pullback down to (72–73) and trade Buy-Writes to average in or sell Puts lower. Collecting Premium and getting called away is the strategy.
• Keep rolling Calls higher as prices allow.

With some cash on hand, I am waiting for a sell-off. If we don’t get down to some of the lower levels with the Stochastics bottoming out, I will manage current positions with rolls into following weeks’ expirations.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

- Sanjog

Good morning,

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Market Movers

This week's focus is on inflation and the consumer, with several key reports that could drive market direction:

• CPI (Wednesday): The biggest event of the week. A cooler inflation reading could boost stocks, while a hotter report may pressure the market and push interest rates higher.
• PPI (Thursday): A look at wholesale inflation and another clue about future price pressures.
• Retail Sales (Friday): A measure of consumer spending and the overall health of the economy.
• AI Earnings: Investors will be looking for updates on AI spending and data center demand, which could influence technology stocks.

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My Thoughts

We made new highs in the SPX, but the QQQ’s did not make new highs. As stated over the last few weeks, I felt like the market would make new highs before we retreat into the seasonal August/September timeframe that is historically weak. I would not be surprised to see a sell-off that could be 5% to 10% off the highs.

Warning for TQQQ: This could mean anywhere from a 15% to 30% drawdown, so either have some cash available or have some stops in place.

The market is indicating a bullish appetite currently; however, the Economic News (CPI and PPI) inflation gauges can change the inflation outlook this week, which can pressure the market if higher than expected.

Seasonally, August and September are the two weakest months of the year. And we also have another Fed meeting in mid-September that may add volatility to the markets in either direction.

Cautiously optimistic this week, but I will still want to raise cash on rallies and enter the market on dips.

These are the levels I'm watching:

• S&P 500: Made a new high last week
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,274 (record close)
• TQQQ: $87.02 (record close)

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Stocks I am Watching This Week

• SPX and QQQ: Benchmark market indices
• TQQQ: Covered Calls sold for Aug 21st, 75 and 76 strike Calls
• IREN: Small position and just holding
• CIFR: Small position and just holding
• INTC: Sold 104 calls for Aug 14th
• AMDL: Small position and just holding

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Income Generating Options Trading Setups

Let's review the possible trade setups for this week.

Key Reference Levels on TQQQ (130 Min Chart)

• Current close: $74.47
• Higher levels: 74.89, 76.03, and 76.33
• Lower levels: 74.21, 73.35, and 72.18
• 21 Day Moving Average: at 70.83; trading above this level is a bullish trend.
• Stochastics: At the 80% line from below; thus, TQQQ is approaching overbought levels.
• VIX: At 14.90, so it is more bullish than bearish here.

Trading Strategy

With cash on hand, I am waiting for a sell-off. If we don’t get down to some of the lower levels with the Stochastics heading lower towards 20%, I will manage current positions with rolls into following weeks’ expirations as price(s) allow.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

- Sanjog

Good afternoon,

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Market Summary

Last week, the market found its footing after two weeks of selling, with the Dow gaining 1.0%, the S&P 500 rising 1.1%, and the Nasdaq leading the way with a 1.6% gain. Investors looked past geopolitical concerns and focused on a strong wave of corporate earnings, while optimism around AI helped technology stocks rebound.

One of the biggest drivers was Big Tech earnings. Several companies delivered results that reinforced the long-term AI growth story, giving investors confidence to buy back into technology after the recent pullback. At the same time, the market continued to monitor the Federal Reserve, as policymakers suggested interest rates could remain higher for longer if inflation doesn't continue to cool.

Geopolitical headlines also remained in focus. Tensions involving Iran eased late in the week after planned military action was called off, helping calm energy markets. Oil prices remained volatile, but investors viewed the reduced geopolitical risk as a positive for equities.

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My Thoughts (Big Picture Outlook)

SmartMoneyIQ Outlook – Late Summer to Early Fall: “Keep It Simple Stupid”!

At this point, thus far into the year, I suspect the market to make some new highs over the next 4 to 6 weeks. When that happens, I would not be surprised to see a sell-off that could be 5% to 10%.

Warning for TQQQ: This could mean anywhere from a 15% to 30% drawdown, so either have some cash available or have some stops in place.

Going into the fourth quarter, maybe even starting in early October, we enter the best 6-month phase of the year and the market rallies into the new year. Seasonally, August and September are the two weakest months of the year. What I'm thinking is to be a little more cautious on chasing rallies and raising cash when possible.

These are the levels I'm watching:

• S&P 500: 7,620 (record close)
• TQQQ: $87.02 (record close)

If these levels are broken on strong volume and broad market participation, it would be another bullish signal for the market. If the indexes approach these highs but fail to break through, expect traders to watch for profit-taking or a short-term pullback.

For those of you who are long-term holders or investors, implementing dollar-cost averaging (DCA) methodology is a prudent way to build an investment portfolio periodically over the long haul without worrying about market whipsaws.

Bottom line: Keep your powder dry and hedges handy. If we get that late-summer flush, I’ll be looking to reload for a Q4 run-up—just not before the storm passes.

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Stocks I am Watching This Week

• SPX and QQQ: Major benchmark indices
• TQQQ: Covered Calls sold Aug 7th (64 & 65 strike Calls), Aug 14th (67 strike Calls)
• CIFR: Small position and just holding
• INTC: Waiting for better days
• AMDL: Covered Calls sold Aug 7th (67 strike Calls)

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Income Generating Options Trading Setups

The market is volatile; however, it has been in a range, so I have just been making money by managing my sold calls for the past 5 weeks. This is how income is made using options.

Key Reference Levels on TQQQ

• Current close: $64.62
• Higher Resistance levels: 67.06, 69.76 & 71.09
• Lower Support levels: 62.87, 59.42 & 57.59
• 21 Day Moving Average: at 68.62; trading above this level is a bullish trend.

BMNR Update

BMNR is still in a long-term downtrend. I am out of BMNR at this point and may revisit this stock after a month or so, should ETH find a base and rally up some. I sold my positions to take a tax loss to offset other gains.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

- Sanjog